Insights | Research Library | John Koyle
(208) 915-8400 john@redcedarwealth.com

The full library of white papers.

Deeper research on the topics my clients ask about most. Each paper is free to read, no email required, and each is grounded in the specific planning situations affluent households face most often.

Retirement Planning
Retirement · Sequence Risk

Sequence of Returns Risk

Two people retire the same day with the same savings and the same average return. One runs out at 79, the other is fine at 90. The difference is when the market fell, and how to defend against it.

27 min readRead →
Retirement · Withdrawals

Retirement Spending and the 4% Rule

Bengen's 1994 study gave us the famous 4% rule, and it's been misunderstood ever since. What the research really says about safe withdrawals, and where the rule holds up and breaks down.

19 min readRead →
Retirement · Tax-Smart Income

Withdrawal Sequencing and Tax-Efficient Distribution

Most retirees treat their savings as one pool. Which account you draw from first, and in what order across thirty years, can dramatically change the total tax you pay. How to sequence withdrawals for efficiency.

18 min readRead →
Retirement · Income Shift

Retirement Income Planning: The Accumulation-to-Distribution Shift

For a working life, the job is to accumulate. Retirement flips the model entirely: the goal becomes reliable, lasting income. Why that shift demands a different mindset and a different plan.

18 min readRead →
Retirement · Sequence Risk

The Bond Tent Strategy

Developed by Kitces and Pfau, the bond tent raises bond exposure right around retirement, then spends it down, to blunt sequence risk without giving up the equity growth a thirty-year retirement needs.

16 min readRead →
Retirement · Income Strategy

Dividend Investing vs. Total Return

Living off dividends and never touching principal feels safe and earned. Why that emotional appeal can lead retirees astray, and how a total-return approach often produces more income with less risk.

15 min readRead →
Retirement · Guaranteed Income

Annuities in Retirement Planning

Few products draw more heat than annuities, and both the critics and the defenders are often right, depending on the type. A clear-eyed look at when guaranteed income earns its place and when the fees aren't worth it.

17 min readRead →
Retirement · Pension Decision

Pension vs. Lump Sum

Pension or lump sum is usually a one-time, irreversible choice that defines your income for life. The tradeoffs between guaranteed lifetime payments and a portfolio you control, and how to weigh them.

18 min readRead →
Retirement · Longevity

Longevity Risk

Longevity risk is the chance of outliving your money, and a plan that fails at ninety leaves no room to recover. Why people underestimate their own lifespans, and how to build a plan that lasts as long as you do.

18 min readRead →
Retirement · Stress Testing

Monte Carlo Analysis and Plan Stress Testing

A plan that assumes 7% every year isn't a plan, it's a best case in disguise. How Monte Carlo simulation stress-tests retirement against thousands of real-world return sequences, and how to read the results honestly.

19 min readRead →
Retirement · Early Exit

Early Retirement and FIRE

Retiring in your forties or fifties adds problems the standard playbook ignores, from bridging health coverage to reaching retirement accounts before 59 and a half. The planning complexities behind the FIRE movement.

18 min readRead →
Retirement · Phased Exit

Working in Retirement: Phased Retirement and Encore Careers

The clean line between working and retired is fading. Phased schedules, consulting, and encore careers reshape the math on income, Social Security, and taxes. How part-time work changes the retirement plan.

16 min readRead →
Retirement · Care Risk

Long-Term Care Planning

Long-term care is the risk nobody models. Investment and inflation risk get simulations; care risk gets a footnote, even though one extended event can be catastrophic. How to plan for it before it's urgent.

17 min readRead →
Retirement · Independent Thinking

Why the Pension System Doesn't Share Your Interests

The institutional machinery behind your 401(k) is built to serve its own liabilities, not you. What that means for the markets you own, and the advantages individual investors actually hold.

6 min readRead →
Tax Strategy
Tax · Roth

The Backdoor Roth IRA

Higher earners are phased out of direct Roth contributions, but a legal two-step still gets them in. How the backdoor Roth works, and the pro-rata rule that creates a surprise tax bill for the unprepared.

17 min readRead →
Tax · Healthcare

The HSA Triple Tax Advantage

The HSA is the only account offering all three breaks at once: a deduction going in, tax-free growth, and tax-free withdrawals for medical costs. How to treat it as a long-term wealth tool, not a debit card.

18 min readRead →
Tax · Roth Conversions

The Roth Conversion Window

Between retirement and age-73 RMDs, many retirees hit the lowest tax bracket of their adult lives. Why that window is the prime time for Roth conversions, and how to fill it without overshooting.

19 min readRead →
Tax · RMDs

Required Minimum Distributions

RMDs are how the IRS finally collects on decades of pre-tax savings, and the penalties for missing them are steep. How the rules work, when they start, and how to manage the tax they create.

18 min readRead →
Tax · Account Mix

The Retirement Tax Bomb

Forty years of maxing pre-tax 401(k)s can build a balance sheet dangerously concentrated in taxable accounts. How that tax bomb forms, and the moves that defuse it before RMDs and survivor brackets make it worse.

17 min readRead →
Tax · Asset Location

Asset Location Strategy

Most investors think about allocation. Far fewer think about location: which account each asset belongs in. Matching the tax character of an investment to the right account can quietly raise your after-tax return.

17 min readRead →
Tax · Accumulation

Tax-Efficient Investing During Accumulation

A tax-efficient retirement starts decades earlier. How account choices, Roth-versus-traditional decisions, fund placement, and loss harvesting during your working years compound into a lower lifetime tax bill.

16 min readRead →
Tax · Capital Gains

Capital Gains Management in Retirement

The tax code offers a 0% long-term capital gains rate inside certain income thresholds, and most retirees never use it. How to harvest gains, manage brackets, and lower the lifetime tax on your investments.

15 min readRead →
Tax · Surtaxes

The Net Investment Income Tax in Retirement

The 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax quietly hits investment income above thresholds that haven't moved since 2013, pulling in more retirees every year. How it works, and how to keep income under the line.

16 min readRead →
Tax · State

State Tax Considerations in Retirement

Federal tax dominates the conversation, but state taxes can swing your after-tax income sharply. Nine states levy none; others tax retirement income near 10%. How where you live shapes what you keep.

15 min readRead →
Tax · Gain Deferral

Qualified Opportunity Zone Investments

Opportunity Zones let investors defer capital gains by funding designated distressed communities. How the incentive works, the long holding periods involved, and the real risks behind the tax benefit.

15 min readRead →
Tax · Healthcare

Medicare IRMAA and Income Coordination

Medicare premiums aren't fixed. Cross certain income lines and they jump, based on your return from two years earlier. How a Roth conversion or one-time gain can trigger IRMAA surcharges, and how to plan around them.

17 min readRead →
Investment Strategy
Investing · Framework

How Professional Investors Read the Market

Most investors never ask how their money is actually managed. A look at one disciplined process that scores economic conditions, market internals, valuations, and sentiment every week.

8 min readRead →
Investing · Portfolio Strategy

What Sophisticated Capital Is Actually Doing

The largest, most sophisticated investors use index funds selectively, never as the whole strategy. The five structural forces reshaping the case for purely passive investing.

6 min readRead →
Investing · Investor Protection

The Investment Traps That Keep Burning Investors

After 25 years, the damage rarely comes from market crashes. It comes from product structures, illiquidity, layered fees, and harsh taxes, and the four questions that expose them before you buy.

9 min readRead →
Investing · Valuation

The CAPE Ratio and Market Valuation

Shiller's CAPE ratio smooths earnings over ten years to gauge how expensive the market is. What today's elevated reading implies about the returns you're likely buying, and how to use it without trying to time the market.

16 min readRead →
Investing · Allocation

Asset Allocation Across the Lifecycle

Research keeps finding that allocation, not stock picking, drives most long-term results. How the right mix of stocks, bonds, and cash should shift as you move from your working years into retirement.

17 min readRead →
Investing · Alternatives

Alternative Investments in Retirement Portfolios

Alternatives like REITs, private credit, and interval funds have moved from institutions into individual portfolios. What they can add to a retirement plan, what they cost in fees and liquidity, and where they fit.

14 min readRead →
Investing · Fees

Investment Fees and Their Compounding Effect

Fees are the one guaranteed return in investing, and they run against you. How every basis point compounds over decades, and why small differences in cost become large differences in retirement wealth.

18 min readRead →
Investing · Behavior

Behavioral Finance and Retirement Decision-Making

Year after year, the average investor earns far less than the funds they own, and the gap is behavior, not markets. The decision-making traps that cost retirees the most, and how to build guardrails against them.

18 min readRead →
Investing · Compounding

The Cost of Waiting to Invest

Compound growth rewards time more than amount, and the cost of delay is permanent. Why even a few years on the sidelines can quietly cost more than any market dip, with the math laid out plainly.

17 min readRead →
Estate & Legacy
Estate · Charitable

The Charitable Remainder Trust

Donate appreciated assets, keep an income stream for life, and defer the capital gains tax, with a partial deduction today. How a charitable remainder trust works, and what you give up.

8 min readRead →
Estate · Blended Families

Protecting Your Legacy in a Second Marriage

When a surviving spouse inherits everything and later remarries, your children can be unintentionally disinherited. The structures, from QTIP trusts to beneficiary planning, that prevent it.

6 min readRead →
Estate · Integration

Estate Planning Intersections with Retirement

Retirement and estate planning are usually handled separately, and that's a mistake. How retirement decisions like Roth conversions, account titling, and survivor benefits ripple straight into your estate.

18 min readRead →
Estate · Inherited IRAs

Inheriting an IRA Post-SECURE 2.0

SECURE 2.0 killed the stretch IRA for most heirs and replaced it with a ten-year drain, and the traps are expensive. How non-spouse beneficiaries should plan distributions to avoid a needless tax hit.

15 min readRead →
Estate · Charitable

Charitable Giving Strategies in Retirement

Most giving happens in the least tax-efficient way possible, a check from a bank account. For retirees with appreciated assets or IRAs, smarter structures fund the same gift while cutting the tax bill.

17 min readRead →
Estate · Survivor Planning

Survivor Planning and Couples' Retirement Math

Most plans are built for two, and then one spouse dies and everything shifts at once: a lost Social Security check, a jump to single brackets, changed income. How to plan for the survivor before that day.

19 min readRead →
Life Transitions
Transitions · Divorce

The Financial Landmines of Divorce

The costliest part of divorce is often not the attorney, but the outdated financial assumptions, beneficiary designations, and Social Security choices nobody updates once the decree is signed.

6 min readRead →
Transitions · Divorce

Divorce and Retirement Assets: QDROs

Divorce turns a plan for two into a plan for one: half the capital, the same expenses, a longer horizon. How QDROs divide retirement accounts correctly, and the moves that protect what you keep.

17 min readRead →
Transitions · Loss

The Widow and Widower Financial Transition

A spouse's death arrives with grief, paperwork, and permanent financial decisions all at once. The cascade of changes a survivor faces in the first weeks and months, and how to avoid costly missteps.

19 min readRead →
Transitions · Job Loss

Retirement Planning After a Job Loss

Losing a job in the decade before retirement disrupts far more than income. It cascades into health coverage, contributions, Social Security timing, and the whole timeline. How to steady the plan.

16 min readRead →
Transitions · Solo

Retirement Planning for Single People

The standard playbook assumes two Social Security checks and shared expenses. Single retirees face a categorically different landscape, with no second income to fall back on and different risks to manage.

16 min readRead →
Transitions · Women

Retirement Planning for Women

Longer lifespans, different earnings and career patterns, and a higher chance of widowhood give women a distinct financial profile the couple-centric playbook misses. What that means for planning.

17 min readRead →
Transitions · Identity

The Psychological Side of Retirement

Financial readiness and psychological readiness are different things. Why the identity and purpose shift of leaving work catches even well-funded retirees off guard, and what the research says about a good transition.

15 min readRead →
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